Coalition for Obama Split by Drift to G.O.P., Poll Finds

Published: October 27, 2010 - New York Times

Critical parts of the coalition that delivered President Obama to the White House in 2008 and gave Democrats control of Congress in 2006 are switching their allegiance to the Republicans in the final phase of the midterm Congressional elections, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

Republicans have wiped out the advantage held by Democrats in recent election cycles among women, Roman Catholics, less affluent Americans and independents. All of those groups broke for Mr. Obama in 2008 and for Congressional Democrats when they grabbed both chambers from the Republicans four years ago, according to exit polls.

If women choose Republicans over Democrats in House races on Tuesday, it will be the first time they have done so since exit polls began tracking the breakdown in 1982.

The poll provides a pre-Election Day glimpse of a nation so politically disquieted and disappointed in its current trajectory that 57 percent of the registered voters surveyed said they were more willing to take a chance this year on a candidate with little previous political experience. More than a quarter of them said they were even willing to back a candidate who holds some views that “seem extreme.”

On the issue most driving the campaign, the economy, Republicans have erased the traditional advantage held by Democrats as the party seen as better able to create jobs; the parties are now even on that measure. By a wide margin, Republicans continue to be seen as the party better able to reduce the federal budget deficit.

The public wants compromise from both sides, though it thinks Mr. Obama will try to do so more than Republicans will. Yet for all of its general unhappiness, the electorate does not seem to be offering any clear guidance for Mr. Obama and the incoming Congress — whoever controls it — on the big issues.

While almost 9 in 10 respondents said they considered government spending to be an important issue, and more than half said they favored smaller government offering fewer services, there was no consensus on what programs should be cut. There was clear opposition to addressing one of the government’s biggest long-term challenges — the growing costs of paying Social Security benefits — by raising the retirement age or reducing benefits for future retirees. Support for one of Mr. Obama’s main economic proposals — raising taxes on income above $250,000 a year — has declined substantially over the course of this year.

Though Republicans have managed to keep Democrats on the defensive over the health care plan they enacted this year, the poll also shows Americans remain divided over Republican promises to repeal it. Forty-five percent said the law should stand, and 41 percent said it should go.

The poll does not measure the strength of individual candidates in specific districts, where indeterminate factors like voter turnout and even weather can affect results. And the poll, taken nationally Thursday through Tuesday with interviews of 1,173 adults, did not ask about United States Senate contests, as 14 states do not have Senate races this year. (The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.)

But it does offer a clear indication of party strength at the end of what has been a particularly intense and hard-fought midterm campaign with more bad news than good for Mr. Obama and his party.

Over all, 46 percent of likely voters said they would vote for Republicans and 40 percent said they would support Democrats.

A higher percentage of Americans continues to have a more favorable opinion of the Democratic Party than of the Republican Party, with 46 percent favoring Democrats and 41 favoring Republicans. But the Republicans’ favorability rating in the New York Times/CBS poll is at its highest level since September 2006.

Disapproval of Congress, however, remains near its highest level in the history of the Times/CBS poll: 76 percent of respondents disapproved, 14 percent approved, and 10 percent expressed no opinion.

Mr. Obama’s approval rating remains below 50 percent. It is 43 percent among registered voters, which is about where President Bill Clinton’s approval rating was in the 1994 midterm elections when Republicans swept control of the House and the Senate.

Yet nearly 60 percent of Americans were optimistic about Mr. Obama’s next two years in office and nearly 70 percent said the economic slump is temporary. Half said the economy was where they expected it would be at this point, and less than 10 percent blamed the current administration for the state of the economy, leaving the onus on former President George W. Bush and Wall Street.

Still, Mr. Obama and the Democrats in Congress have their work cut out for them if they intend to rebuild the voting coalition that gave them their current positions at the levers of power, whatever the outcome on Election Day.

In the case of women — a traditionally Democratic-leaning group that the White House has been courting actively in recent weeks — the shift toward the Republicans was marked in the latest poll, especially when compared with their stated preferences in the last Times/CBS poll, in mid-September.

In the earlier poll, women favored Democrats over Republicans by seven percentage points. In the latest poll, women said they were likely to support a Republican over a Democrat by four percentage points, suggesting Republican gains among women who were undecided as of last month.

But the shift extended geographically, as well. Among poll respondents from the Western United States, more said they expected to vote for Republicans this year than said they expected to vote for Democrats; majorities of voters from that region voted for Mr. Obama in 2008 and for Congressional Democrats in 2006, according to the exit polls taken in those elections.

The Democratic House speaker, Representative Nancy Pelosi, clearly emerged as a political liability for her party in the latest Times/CBS poll. Over all, 43 percent of respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Ms. Pelosi; 15 percent had a favorable opinion, and 40 percent said they had no opinion. The minority leader in the House who would probably become the speaker if Republicans win the majority, Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, remains largely unknown. Three quarters of respondents said they had no opinion of him.

In a follow-up interview, one poll respondent, Judy Berg, an independent from Morton Grove, Ill., said she voted for Mr. Obama in 2008 because she was “looking for a change,” adding, “the change that ensued was not the change I was looking for but something totally out of left field.”

This year, Ms. Berg, a registered nurse, expressed a preference for Republicans because “I’m pro-life and I’m also looking at the immigration issues and the tax issues.” She added, “I like the Republican agenda on these issues better than the Democratic agenda.”

Like several other national polls, the latest Times/CBS poll shows a considerable “enthusiasm gap” between Republicans and Democrats. Six in 10 Republicans said they were more enthusiastic about voting this year than usual. Four in 10 Democrats said the same.

The poll includes indications that Republicans will have their own challenges should they gain control of one or both chambers of Congress with a new crop of lawmakers who identify with the Tea Party.

About 6 in 10 Republicans who are likely to vote think the views of most Republicans are consistent with those of the Tea Party movement, which, though diffuse, has had success this year in arguing that Republicans have been too eager to choose compromise over principle.

Yet 78 percent of respondents said they believed Republicans in Congress should compromise some of their positions to get things done and 15 percent said they should stick to their positions even if it means getting less done. Similar percentages said they wanted Democrats to choose compromise over principle.